2017 NFL Draft

Pre-Draft Report (Patrick Mahomes II)

Posted on by QB Film Room

Author – Bryan Trulen

Patrick Mahomes II 6’2” 225 Texas Tech

mahomes.jpg

(Photo Credit – Star Tribune)

Overview

During his college career, Patrick Mahomes passed for over 11,000 yards, 93 touchdowns and 29 interceptions while making 29 career starts. Mahomes completed nearly 64% of his passes during his time in Lubbock. He also rushed for 845 yards and 22 touchdowns. Mahomes plays the position with a rare blend of athletic instinct, pure passing ability and arm strength. Mahomes was a three sport star at the high school level as he was a top prospect for the MLB draft and averaged 20 points per game on the basketball court. Ultimately it was football that Mahomes chose to pursue and he has put himself on the track to become a franchise quarterback at the next level and we believe he will end up being the best quarterback from this class when we look back ten years from now.

Tape Analysis  (2016) Oklahoma, Arizona State, Baylor, TCU, Louisiana Tech

Agility and instincts within the pocket are off the charts as Mahomes has a second nature feel for moving from within and manipulating the pocket in order to create space for himself. Mahomes is one of the most natural movement throwers in the class as he is very comfortable in this regard something which stems from his baseball background. He is very “light” on his feet and shows the ability to re-set and get his lower half in position to deliver the ball at the snap of a finger. Even though his throwing mechanics need refinement Mahomes shows an innate

understanding of timing and routinely throws with anticipation on multiple types of throws. Mahomes will throw his wide receivers open and does so by anticipating windows in the middle of the field or by way of ball placement on deep routes outside the numbers.

What separates his arm from Chad Kelly’s is Mahomes ability to make wow type off platform throws at levels not seen since Brett Favre. Mahomes has rare arm talent. Has an intuitive feel on how to throw around as well as level the ball over defenders. Throwing with touch is a tool Mahomes relies on a regular basis and is adept at “leading” his receivers versus man coverage. Very Alert in the pocket and will take off and run as a last resort. Quick release that Mahomes uses to his advantage in the short passing game. Mahomes does have a sandlot, freelance feel to his game at times but beneath it all is an understanding of how to play within structure and operate as the triggerman of a pass centric offense. There will be those who dismiss Mahomes as a sand lot player who lacks fundamentals but we feel he is a high end talent with potential to be a franchise quarterback for years to come.

 

Projection

Mahomes will be the first quarterback taken in the 2017 draft as he has seen his stock soar throughout the pre-draft process. Mahomes will most likely sit during year 1 but has the tools to become a franchise level quarterback who can lead his teams to championships if everything falls into place for him.

 

Trait Grades (Mahomes)

Arm Talent (A)
Arm Strength (A)
Ball Placement/Accuracy (B+) Delivery/Mechanics (B)

Toughness (B+)
Pocket Presence (B+) Intangibles/Off-Field (A-) Running Ability/Athleticism (B)

Anticipation (A-) Football IQ (B+) Touch (A-)
Throw on Run (A-)

 

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Dallas Renegades (XFL) QB Philip Nelson Pre-Draft Analysis

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Sample Report on Dallas Renegades (XFL) QB Philip Nelson from our 2017 Draft Guide

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Philip Nelson 6’2” 216 East Carolina

Overview

Philip Nelson started as a Redshirt Freshman/Sophomore at the University of Minnesota in 2012/2013. During this time Nelson showed flashes of promise but was playing in a run centric offense that saw him throw for 2,100 yards 17 touchdowns against 14 interceptions. Nelson elected to transfer after the 2013 season and things only went downhill from there for him personally. Nelson was implicated in an assault case that put him in the national spotlight in a negative way. Nelson eventually got himself out of the legal mess and made his way to East Carolina as a walk on transfer. Nelson was named the starter for the 2016 season and for about a month and a half was the best passer statistically in all of college football as he opened the

2016 campaign on fire through air. Injuries prevented Nelson from starting every game for ECU in 2016 but he still ended up putting up over 2,600 yards and 16 touchdown passes through air.

Film Analysis – (2016) South Carolina, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, NC State, Tulsa (2013) Nebraska

Natural thrower of the football who trusts his receivers to make plays for him. Consistently puts the ball in a preferable spot for his target on multiple types of routes. Generally accurate anticipation thrower who understands how and when to throw early. Somewhat far along in terms of being a nuanced passer coming out of college. Isolating a play from NC State contest where Nelson delivered a wheel route to his RB on time as he let the ball go before the back was into the last part of his stem demonstrating trust, anticipation and accuracy on his part. Not a finished product from an overall mechanical standpoint as his left arm has a tendency to flail out away from body after he releases ball and his down the field accuracy can be affected by this at times. Nelson does have a real knack for hitting his receivers in stride down the field versus man coverage as there were multiple times Good feel for throwing the football. Made some questionable decisions when confronted with immediate in his face type pressure. Quick feet both in setting up and responding to pressure as Nelson is able to get away from pressure well. Solid pre snap decision maker who routinely puts excellent touch on the football down the field. very quick release of ball with the ability to quickly get his feet in position to deliver in a hurry.does not deal with pressure with ease or comfort and can get rattled fairly easily from pressure May have the quickest release in the class. Consistently throws a catchable ball.

Projection – ​There is a high probability that Philip Nelson hears his name called at some during Day 3 of the Draft. Nelson is as natural of a passer as there is in the 2017 draft and put together a solid senior season at ECU. We believe that Nelson’s ceiling at the next level is as a starting quarterback. Nelson comes into the league further along than many of his peers in terms of understanding pro passing game concepts and he is seasoned as a thrower. We believe that Nelson has all of the tools necessary to become a starting quarterback at the next level but he will have to be in an offensive centric organization that believes in him order to receive that chance.

Trait Grades (Nelson)

Arm Talent (B+) Toughness (B) Anticipation (A-)

Arm Strength (B) Pocket Presence (C) Football IQ (A-)

Ball Placement/Accuracy (A-) Intangibles/Off-Field (B) Touch (B+)

Delivery/Mechanics (A-) Running Ability/Athleticism (C+) Throw on Run (B)

Deshaun Watson Pre-Draft Scouting Report

Posted on by QB Film Room

 

 

NFL: Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals

 

 

© QB Film Room 2017

#4 Deshaun Watson, 6’2” 215 Clemson  

Overview                                             

Based on overall production in college and how he relished the big stage it is pretty obvious that Deshaun Watson deserves an opportunity to show that he can be a starting quarterback at the next level. Watson passed for just under 9,000 yards in 2015 and 2016 while amassing 1,300 yards on the ground during the last two seasons. While statistics alone can be misleading, Watson showed just enough pro level traits through the air that will garner him an opportunity to be selected at some point in the first two rounds of the 2017 draft. That being said, there are definite holes in his game as a thrower. Despite his production and poise on the big stage, he is not viewed in the same light as prospects such as Carson Wentz, Matthew Stafford or Andrew Luck in terms of being a high end can’t miss prospect coming out of college. Some of this has to do with the system Watson was indoctrinated into at Clemson as well as his natural propensity to escape the pocket and fall back on his natural running instincts when faced with pressure. We view Watson as a more talented version of Alex Smith coming out of college.

Watson was a three year starter at Clemson passing for 90 touchdowns and rushing for 26 touchdowns during his time there.

 

Analysis/Scouting Notes on Watson

Steps up big during most critical moments which speaks to his ability to remain poised under duress. Watson may very well be the best or one of the best deep ball throwers in this draft class (both fade and back shoulder fade throws) as Watson perfected throwing this type of route utilizing anticipation, quick feet and touch from the shotgun formation. Watson continually made his money with critical moment back shoulder throws throughout his career as well.

Watson however is more of an aim thrower as opposed to being a “let it loose” type of thrower. Not as consistently natural of an intuitive passer as a Trubisky or Kelly.

Not extremely intuitive or flexible with release.

At times throws as if he is not fully aware of defenders around him, which can be both good and bad.Will drop his arm slot to ¾ delivery which impacts ball trajectory and leads to batted balls at LOS.  More of an athlete playing the QB position it seems at times. Needs to improve the fluidity of his drops. Very athletic and quick twitched yet his film indicates a guy who although quick in setting up does not look smooth and fluid dropping back from shotgun or under center. Had a static and almost heavy sense at times to his drop backs.

A tremendous leader on and off the field. Rare ability to put a team on his shoulders and lead them to victory. Has an overall knack for making plays out of the designed structure of a play. Extremely athletic.

An upper body thrower that almost seems robotic at times but still fluid for the most part.

Tremendous back shoulder fade thrower of the football

 

Film Notes –  Wake Forest  (2015) Florida State (2016) North Carolina (2014) Alabama (2016) South Carolina (2016)

Consistently beat the Wake Forest defense with the ball to all levels of the defense throwing with velocity, placement and touch on out breaking and deep routes from the pocket. Watson showed the ability to deliver with a consistently quick release. Flashed elite sense of timing and anticipation during this contest, something that he showed in spades during his up and down 2016 season.

Shows improvisational skills to maneuver and evade pressure at a high level.  Possesses ELITE pocket escapability instincts and plays with good poise. Shows the ability to get north/south fast when running the football. Does not possess a great feel for throwing shallow crossing routes. Does not protect himself as well as he probably should, which at the next level could mean missed time due to injury.  Down the field accuracy can be scattershot at time. Shows the ability to throw with excellent touch making some pinpoint bucket throws down the middle versus Tampa 2 and throwing the corner route with perfect timing and placement.

When he knows what he is getting pre-snap he can beat you with touch and down the field velocity on time, much like he did in 2014 versus North Carolina.

 

Pro Day Update 3/17/2017

Watson showed some noticeable improvements during his pro day. He has been working with Jordan Palmer on his game and it shows. Watson’s feet looked in-sync and quick while performing multiple under center style drop backs during his pro day and his throwing motion looked sharper with the ball came out crisp and cleaner than what his 2016 film showed. In our opinion he won his Pro Day. The work is done for him and he will be playing a waiting game until draft day.
Projection-  Deshaun Watson is among the top five quarterback prospects in this class. His combination of athleticism, poise and just enough arm talent will garner him an opportunity to prove he can be a franchise quarterback in the league. The jump to the pro game will be an adjustment for Deshaun coming from a pure spread system at Clemson and sitting in year one may be his best bet in order to give him the best chance at achieving long term sustainability as a starting quarterback at the next level.  Look for Watson to be selected anywhere from late Round 1 to Round 3 at the latest.

 

Trait Grades (Watson)

 

Arm Talent (B)                                 Toughness (A-)                              Anticipation (A-)

 

Arm Strength (B-)                            Pocket Presence (B-)                    Football IQ (A-)

 

Ball Placement/Accuracy (B-)          Intangibles/Off-Field  (A)               Touch  (B)

 

Delivery/Mechanics (B+)                  Running Ability/Athleticism (A)     Throw on Run (B)

 

 

Post Draft QB Thoughts (2017)

Posted on by QB Film Room

Author – Bryan Trulen

Jay-Cutler.Vikings.400

With the 2017 draft and UDFA period coming to an end lets take a minute and assess the market.

Big name and other veterans( most were once starters) could be out of work for a while..  Jay Cutler, Robert Griffin III, Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Nassib, Christian Ponder, Matt McGloin, Dan Orlovsky, Austin Davis and Thadeus Lewis.

With ten quarterbacks selected over the weekend via the draft and with free agent quarterbacks like Josh McCown, Brian Hoyer, Matt Barkley, Case Keenum, Mark Sanchez, Mike Glennon etc already signed with new teams there ae few if any openings currently around the league at the position. Injuries in August or during the year could change this obviously but dont’ expect much action on the market.

A part of me wants to believe that many of these current free agent quarterbacks will get a call fairly soon but the stark reality is more likely that their careers as professional quarterbacks at the highest level are likely over.

For In-Depth Reports on the 2017 College QB Class check out our  2017 College QB Prospect Guide

First Reaction – Round 1 Quarterbacks (2017)

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Author – Bryan Trulen

Image result for patrick mahomes chiefs

(Photo Credit – Houston Chronicle)

Thoughts on Trubisky going to Chicago Like most, I did not see the Bears selection of Mitchell Trubisky at #2 overall coming in advance, we had him pegged as our first QB off the board but I truly believe that Bears GM Ryan Pace sees Trubisky as a true developmental quarterback with a high ceiling. Mike Glennon was signed for a reason and he will remain the starter in 2017 but this pick shows us that Chicago feels really strongly about Trubisky, much like how Philly felt about Carson Wentz last year. I do not foresee Trubisky leap frogging Mike Glennon in 2017. The domino effect on the Bears QB room will be felt somewhere as the Bears will be bringing Trubisky, Glennon, Mark Sanchez and 4th year pro Connor Shaw to training camp in July.  Sanchez or Shaw will end up being cut at the end of training camp.

Patrick Mahomes goes to an ideal situation in KC Andy Reid gets a quarterback he is extremely high on. Reid is a known quarterback guru and puts them in positions to succeed in terms of scheme design, play calling and with how handles them from a communication perspective. Mahomes may be the biggest winner from Round 1. It is going to become very apparent once Mahomes gets to campus how big of a difference exists between him and Alex Smith in terms of arm talent. Mahomes should sit during 2017 but he is in a prime position to take over for Smith sooner rather than later.

Houston selects Deshaun Watson Texans HC Bill O’Brien and Rick Smith were on the same page with the selection of Watson at pick 12. Like Mahomes, Watson will be viewed as a #2 during his rookie year and will be on the developmental track. From a player perspective Watson gives the Texans and O’Brien something they have never had, an athletic quarterback who excels in a timing based passing system and as both O’Brien and Rick Smith stated during their press conference is a “Winner” . Watson displays elite level poise and is a big time performer in clutch situations. Watson has the internal structure in Houston to give him a chance to be highly successful.

Annual Quarterback Mock Draft (2017)

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For In-Depth Tape Based Analysis on the Entire 2017 QB Class Check out our 

2017 College Prospect QB Guide

2017 Quarterback Mock Draft

Author – Bryan Trulen

Here it is! Our annual Quarterback Mock Draft. Enjoy

Round 1

1(1) Mitchell Trubisky (Cleveland) There was never any question Mitchell was not coming home to Ohio. With so many QB needy teams directly behind Cleveland, the Browns have no choice but to pull the trigger on their guy at #1.

1(2) Patrick Mahomes (Arizona) Rare In Division Trade with SF (SF Drops back to 12 and accumulates picks) Arians and Company driving this one as they view Mahomes as their guy for years to come.

1(25) Deshaun Watson (Houston) Bill O’Brien brings in something he has never had, a dual threat athletic quarterback who can still throw well. Don’t rule out Houston adding yet another QB later on.

1(27) Chad Kelly (Kansas City) Andy Reid takes a huge gamble on what he hopes to be Alex Smith’s eventual replacement.  

1(30) Deshone Kizer (Chicago)  Chicago Trades with Pitt to draft Kizer.

Round 2

2(39) Joshua Dobbs (NY Jets) Dobbs immediately competes for starting Job in a crowded QB room in New York. Dobbs athleticism makes him the favorite to win the job in 2017.

2(49) Nathan Peterman (Wash) If Kirk Cousins is dealt this would vault Peterman in an outright competition with McCoy and Sudfeld. If Cousins stays in WA this pick may not take place.

Round 3

3 (66) Philip Nelson (49ers) Kyle Shannahan reaches for a pure passing QB early as Nelson will come in and learn behind Brian Hoyer in 2017.

3 (69) C.J Beathard (LA Rams) New coach Sean McVay brings in a similar in a sense QB to Kirk Cousins who will compete from the outset with Jared Goff (Still will be Goff’s job to lose)

3 (103) Dane Evans (New Orleans) Saints take their QB of the future in round 3 as opposed to waiting until their next selection in round 6. Considered a reach but a calculated one by Sean Payton.

3 (105) Davis Webb (Steelers) Mike Tomlin brings in Davis Webb to compete with Landry Jones in 2017 and to eventually replace Ben.

Round 5

5 (148) Alek Torgersen (Jaguars) Coughlin and Company bring an a guy to Push Bortles and compete for the #2 job.

5 (151) Brad Kaaya (LA Chargers) The Chargers get a Developmental generally accurate QB to learn under Phil Rivers and hopefully take over in 2019.

5 (167) Garrett Fugate (D2) (New York Giants) Ben McAdoo gets a Trevor Siemian like QB to take over after Peyton’s younger brother retires or is released.

5 (169) Jack Nelson (D2) (Houston Texans) Houston gets another QB in the RG3/Kirk Cousins Model of 2012. And if we are being honest, Nelson has better Arm Talent than Deshaun Watson and will be competing with Watson in Houston..

Round 6

6 (186) Jerod Evans (Baltimore Ravens) Evans competes for backup job from Day 1

6 (195) Cooper Rush (Buffalo)

6 (210) Trevor Knight (Seattle Seahawks) Competes for backup job with Trevone Boykin from Day 1.

6 (211) Mitch Leidner (Dallas Cowboys) Cowboys OC Scott Linehan has faith that he can fix Leidner.

Round 7

7 (232) Patrick Towles, Boston College (Minnesota Vikings

7 (233) Gunner Kiel, Cincinnati (Carolina Panthers)

Prospect Report – Dane Evans (Tulsa)

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Author – Bryan Trulen

Dane Evans 6’0” 212 Tulsa

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(Image Credit – UT Athletics)

Read More about Dane Evans in our newest publication – 2017 College QB Prospect Guide

Overview

Dane Evans quietly had a very productive senior season at Tulsa throwing for over 3,300 yards and 32 touchdowns in leading Tulsa to a convincing victory against Central Michigan where he capped off his career in the Miami Beach Bowl by throwing for over 300 yards and five touchdowns. Evans was a three year starter at Tulsa who improved each year down in Green Country.

Film Notes – (2016) ECU, Fresno State, Tulane, Central Michigan (2015) Oklahoma  

Evans possesses a quick, natural delivery of the football. Shows the ability from the ground up to get the ball out in a hurry.  Decisive with pre snap reads operating from a shotgun based multiple receiver offense at Tulsa. Confident thrower who trusts what he sees and does not hesitate. Shows the ability to change trajectory throwing with velocity and touch when required. Innate feel for throwing his receivers open depending upon coverage. Solid internal clock. Anticipates windows with regularity within the intermediate game. Let it loose thrower. Single handedly kept Tulsa in the game against Oklahoma in 2015 by making throw after throw. Showed the ability to be consistently accurate at all levels while at Tulsa. Offense in college consisted of many short, predetermined throws that Evans mastered but won’t necessarily translate to the pro game. Film shows a quarterback who mastered the offensive down at Tulsa – something which carries weight.  Good but not great mechanics throwing the football. Reminds us a bit of Matt Barkley at times. Showed the ability to place the ball at the facemask level and in stride to short crossing routes. Sixth sense almost in terms of sensing when to get rid of the ball to open targets down the field, almost Drew Brees esque coming out of Purdue. You can tell he has an intuitive understanding of

where the ball should go against certain coverages. Undersized at just over 6’0” tall. Is going to have to be placed with a quarterback centric coaching staff in order to have a chance to develop at the next level.

Projection – Late round prospect who will surprise people when he gets into camp somewhere. Evans has the tools as a pure passer to garner serious consideration as a developmental prospect for a team. Look for Evans to possibly be selected in Round 6 or 7 but more than likely will be a priority UDFA.  

Trait Grades (D. Evans)

Arm Talent (B+)                            Toughness (B-)                                    Anticipation (A-)

Arm Strength (B)                           Pocket Presence (B)                           Football IQ (B+)

Ball Placement/Accuracy (B+)       Intangibles/Off-Field  (B-)                    Touch  (A-)

Delivery/Mechanics (B+)               Running Ability/Athleticism (C+)         Throw on Run (B)