RS Junior QB Carson Strong had a STRONG Week 1 performance leading the Nevada Wolfpack to a road victory on the road vs Cal. We evaluate three of his throws from the contest that speak to his advanced level of play.
Comprehensive & in-depth player profiling, film based grading & analysis canvassing the entirety (1st Rd-UDFAs) of the 2021 QB class. (19 prospects evaluated) 50 Pages
Holistic approach combining both film analysis & trait grading with the aim to analyze each player from both a macro & micro standpoint, focusing on the elements that contribute to player performance. As a result, each player scouting report is both comprehensive & granular.
We define 12 critical areas of the quarterback position that prospects are graded on with professional models for each category. Prospects are graded & measured against an NFL grading curve.
In his lone year as the starting quarterback for the Buckeyes, Haskins accumulated a stat line of 4,831 yards through the air while throwing for a jaw
dropping 50 touchdowns against only 8 interceptions. He completed over 70 percent of his throws & holds the Big Ten all time record for both yards and touchdown passes in a single season. Haskins was in a reserve role behind J.T Barrett in 2017. Enters the NFL draft after a breakout 2018 season that saw his stock as a player rise at a rapid rate not normally seen for a first year starter.
Trait Grades (Haskins)
Arm Talent (B+) Toughness (B-) Arm Strength (A-) Pocket Presence (C) Ball Placement/Accuracy (B-) Intangibles/Off Field (B) Delivery/Mechanics (B) Running Ability/Athleticism (C) Throw on Run (A-)
Strengths
Big play ability, throwing deep MOF, intermediate Game, decision making, football IQ, deep arm power/placement
Weaknesses
Upper body mechanics, Trying to be perfect (aim thrower) at times, athleticism, staying calm under duress, slow/awkward feet at times, anticipation, touch underneath
Anticipation (B) Football IQ (A-) Touch (B-)
Trait Grades (Haskins)Arm Talent (B+) Toughness (B-) Arm Strength (A-) Pocket Presence (C) Ball Placement/Accuracy (B-) Intangibles/Off Field (B) Delivery/Mechanics (B) Running Ability/Athleticism (C) Throw on Run (A-)
Tape Analysis (Haskins)
Demonstrates ability to place the ball exactly where he wants to when he wants to while operating from pocket when facing zone undercoverage particularly on MOF in breaking intermediate routes. Deftly places passes over the outstretched arms of 2nd level defenders. Natural thrower on the move who is fairly fluid & coordinated delivering the ball while still running towards the sideline. High football IQ & stays away from making egregious errors with the ball. Efficient but not outstanding from a footwork standpoint. Throws with solid pace. Does not naturally throw with touch ingrained into his DNA as a passer specifically within short/intermediate game which results in misfires to targets that are dropped in the short/intermediate range. Does not naturally place the ball away from man defenders which proved to be problematic at times for him. Deep game is hit or miss for Haskins. Multiple throws deep that ended up being perfectly placed with elite velocity but there were other times where Haskins timing and placement on deep throws was off as he has a tendency to wait a beat long before letting the ball go.
Can become frantic when dealing with pressure in which his mechanics break down resulting in ball placement issues. A beneficiary at times of elite schematic design where receivers were running wide open. Does a great job at re-positioning his feet instinctively when adjusting the angle of his initial set in the pocket which allows him to open his hips and still be accurate. Average overall athleticism. Made multiple big time throws in what proved to be a showcase game for him in the Big Ten Championship game that featured Haskins moving deep defenders with his eyes and placing the ball deep down the field with relative ease. Natural enough thrower on the move. Great at throwing on time down the field between the hashes and has enough arm to make most if not all throws. Balls can get away from Haskins when he is not in a rhythm and the issue can be compounded over multiple series. His confidence can become rattled when things are not going as expected for him which may speak to inexperience. At times his release can become too elongated/choppy which has a negative effect on ball placement. Additionally, his elbow placement at times will remain low during his throwing motion which causes Haskins to spray the ball inaccurately.
Projection
Haskins meteoric rise to be included in the QB 1 conversation for the 2019 NFL Draft has thrown him into the spotlight and there are many positives surrounding his potential at the next level. However, he is a young, inexperienced player who will need to sit during year 1. He has the potential to develop into a viable starter at the next level but there are issues that will need to be ironed out first. Learning on the job would not be the best medicine for him right away. We have Haskins graded out as a 2nd round prospect but due to demand will most likely be selected in mid-late Round 1. We believe Haskins will end up having a chance to be a starter at some point but are not sold on his ability to be a team’s long term solution as a franchise quarterback.
Justin Herbert capped off his college career as he probably envisioned he would when he made the decision to return to Eugene for his Senior year. In 2019, Herbert had his best season statistically (3,471 yards 32 TD’s 6 INT’s) through the air as he led Oregon to a Rose Bowl victory. Herbert essentially comes into the NFL as a four year starter and his career stat line playing in a pistol spread attack went (10,541 passing yards – 95 touchdowns – 23 interceptions – 64%) Herbert is the most intelligent quarterback (and player for that matter) entering the draft from a general mental processing & academic accomplishment perspective. He graduated from Oregon with a Biology degree and finished his coursework with a 4.01 GPA.
Trait Grades (Herbert)
Arm Talent (A-) Toughness (A) Anticipation (B+)
Arm Strength (A) Pocket Presence (B+) Football IQ (A-)
Ball Placement (B) Delivery/Mechanics (A-) Intangibles/Off Field (A-)
Touch (B) Running/Athleticism (A) Throw on Run (A-)
Tape Analysis (Herbert)
Herbert plays with great control from within the pocket & is comfortable surveying late into this down trusting his arm & ability to make tight window throws. Herbert has an absolute hose of arm but he doesn’t get enough credit for his ability to throw with touch, particularly deep. However, this part of his game is erratic
& he is unable to rely on throwing with touch consistently, it appears in spades. (deep corner & fade) There are countless examples throughout his tape of him placing the ball with pin-point precision down the field against tight coverage. Very athletic & brings great size to the position. He played in an offense at Oregon that does not fully project (conceptually) to the NFL, however his ability to operate under center & master the footwork element required of a pro-style system was on display during Senior Bowl week. Herbert’s feet looked quick, efficient & smooth from the beginning of the week all the way through the game. In this regard he is similar to Josh Allen (2018) in terms of the naturally quick & fluid feet he is able to exhibit despite both being 6’5” plus. Again, the offense at Oregon did not fully allow him to display this element of his game. Essentially, Herbert would have no issue adjusting to a pro-style drop back & play-action game.
When Herbert moves out of the pocket either by design or off-script he shows great ability to shorten his stride & quickly is able to get his body in a position to deliver the football on time. This cannot be understated enough because when doing so he still shows great accuracy & everything looks natural for him on the move which speaks to his great overall footwork. The ball
comes out quick with steam for him on the move as well. As an executor of the play-action game, Herbert is both capable & comfortable. At Oregon many of their down-field passing concepts incorporated elements of fly sweep or pistol action fakes & as stated earlier to earlier he has no issue with drop-back play action as he shows the ability to sell run hard with his back turned to the defense from under center and then quickly get his head turned around afterwards while setting up at the launch point.
Oregon’s offense featured many quick hitting bubble screens & option routes that saw Herbert quickly spray the ball to stationary targets. Herbert struggled the most with intermediate throws from the pocket where he due to the coverage he needed to level the ball over defenders & improvement in this area will be vital. I do believe that playing in an NFL system will only help Herbert develop faster in this regard by implementing quarterback friendly spacing & action through high level play design. He has already shown he has the arm & feet to make these throws, he will however need to throw with better anticipation at times on these types of throws.
Anticipation is an area of growth for him moving forward. He is not weak in this regard but he needs to really over focus on throwing with better anticipation once he arrives to his new team with the hope it becomes more habitual during live action.
A dangerous rusher of the football. Is not afraid of contact & possesses both high level agility, instincts as well as straight line speed. He also seems to take off as a last resort off-script or when identifying (quickly) through play design/flow of defense where green grass to run will be. When Herbert decides to run, he does so in short order & takes off to green grass.
Herbert has the ability to make any throw on the field. There was a play against Washington from 2019 where he fit a seam ball between the both the field safety & the undercoverage trailer defender that demonstrated his ability to stand firm in the pocket against a free blitzer (look down the gun-barrel) & deliver with velocity, accuracy & a quick release. This is a trait that will serve to his benefit at the next level. Despite Herbert being 6’6” he is not a long strider. He has a rare ability to get the ball off quickly in the face of incoming pressure. He can operate well working within the proverbial phone booth.
Projection
On the surface, evaluating Herbert can be frustrating at times. There are macro-level variables that can blur the true evaluation of the player. Some of those variables are the offensive system at Oregon, the emergence of Joe Burrow as a one year phenom, the physical & mental traits of Herbert that at times become hidden or downplayed. Simply put, you really need to roll back the layers of Herbert’s game & closely evaluate the player & person. After doing this it has become apparent to me he deserves serious consideration to be the first quarterback selected in the 2020 NFL Draft. We believe Herbert is going to be selected by the Cincinnati Bengals at the #1 spot. If the Bengals do go with the national media consensus and take Joe Burrow, he will be selected by the
Dolphins at four unless a team like Jacksonville trades up to select him at 2 or 3. We believe Herbert has a chance to become a great player at the next level because of his physical traits, mental makeup & maturity. When we look back at this draft class in five years, Herbert will be viewed as the best quarterback from this class.
Full Game Analysis Kyler Murray came out of the gates throwing quick game throws that helped him get comfortable. Kingsbury had Murray distributing the ball to DeAndre Hopkins & Larry Fitzgerald early. Murray did a good job of playing from the pocket all game long as he would be both on time & decisive with his throws. He hit a deep comeback to the opposite hash during the 2nd quarter where he looked like a ten year vet. Murray was able to limit big hits from the 49ers front four (he took a few on the day) but was able to protect himself for the most part both in the pocket & when he ran the football. Murray was mechanically sound all day in terms of his feet, torque & release which allowed him to play with timing & throw with anticipation down the field. He was the best QB on the field during this game & was a big reason the Cardinals were able to upset the 49ers on the road. Murray ran for 91 yards on the day & delivered a dagger of a 25 yard electric TD run where he made the 49er secondary look silly due to his burst & agility.
Player Stats (Murray) 26 of 40 for 230 yards 1 TD, 1 INT
Player – #10 Jimmy Garoppolo (QB)
Full Game Analysis Garoppolo started out on fire from an efficiency standpoint, as he was tasked with making quick short throws, one of which went 76 yards for a TD to RB Raheem Mostert. Jimmy G however began to struggle later on in the game once the Cardinals offense began to sustain drives, the pressure onSF to do the same was there & this seemed to fluster Jimmy a bit. Jimmy was behind his target on a 3rd & 5 to the flat mid first quarter and it was the beginning of a somewhat erratic day for him. He was generally uncomfortable in the pocket once any semblance of pressure arrived which resulted in Jimmy dropping his eyes & panicking. He also did not properly ID coverage on a 3rd & 3 where it was clear man to man would open a specific route over the ball, but Jimmy panicked and threw up a prayer to his wheel route.
The 4th quarter came along and Jimmy G shrunk during the 49ers final opportunity late. The drive started with 5:03 left and SF down by 4 points at their own 25. Jimmy G did enough to get the offense in a position to take the lead by way of his quick passing & legs picking up a key first down near midfield. The offense stalled however once they got to the red zone as Garoppolo was trying to aim throws & not trust either what he was seeing pre-snap or just flat out mis reading coverages. The drive ended with a Garoppolo incompletion on 4th down where he hesitated on a 9-10 yard out route to his right side. As Garoppolo became more uncomfortable in the pocket, his lower body mechanics began to break down & he was not getting enough depth in his drop backs & also was short striding his throws.
Player Stats (Garoppolo) 19 of 33 for 259 yards & 2 TD
Cam Newton, 10th Year (NE) Newton missed the majority of 2019 due to injury, but he has attacked his rehab like a true pro & is motivated to return to his earlier form in 2020. The Patriots added him to a QB room that includes Brian Hoyer & Jarrett Stidham, both players who have more experience & understanding in the Patriots system but have nowhere near Newton’s physical skill set as players. Newton can do things that those two simply cannot replicate on a football field. We believe Newton ends up starting for the team opening week. Getting Newton to play with more discipline & consistency in the passing game while still allowing him to be creative out of structure will be a major point of emphasis for the staff, something they will work to perfect as the season progresses.
Tyrod Taylor, 10th Year (LAC) Taylor will be the Week 1 starter for HC Anthony Lynn & the leash will not be a short one. Taylor has proven to be a coveted commodity in this league & may have an opportunity to play the entire year out as the team’s starting quarterback which would allow Herbert to develop more without being forced to play & give the team the best chance of success in 2020 due to Taylor’s experience. A versatile athlete who can throw with great power, touch & placement deep. Throwing with anticipation & accuracy within the quick & intermediate game is where Taylor struggles.
Daniel Jones, 2nd Year (NYG) Jones showed great promise as a rookie taking over for Eli Manning, making his first NFL start during Week 3. Jones threw for 3,024 yards, 24 TDs & 12 INT across 12 starts, going 3-9 in the W-L column. Jones has elite tools (release, athleticism, mechanics) but he needs to become a better all-around anticipation passer. New offensive coordinator Jason Garrett will look to get Jones playing to his maximum potential in the Big Apple. Hopefully the Princeton grad (Garrett) can connect with the Duke grad (Jones) & get this offense rolling
Take your QB Film Room experience to the next level by becoming a subscriber to our Analysis Service.
Minshew II started for East Carolina in 2017 but ended up transferring to Washington State for his RS Senior year in 2018 where quickly asserted himself as the starter and .put. up video game numbers on a weekly basis playing for Mike
Leach. When all was said & done he threw for over 4,700 yards, 38 touchdowns against only 9 interceptions while completing a staggering 71% of his throws.
Trait Grades (Minshew)
Arm Talent (B) Toughness (B-)
Arm Strength (C+) Pocket Presence (B-)
Ball Placement/Accuracy (A-) Intangibles/Off Field (A-)
Delivery/Mechanics (A-) Running Ability/Athleticism (B-) Throw on Run (B+)
Tape Analysis (Minshew)
Throws with anticipation, naturally throws with touch. Good understanding of how to throw to his receivers open versus man coverage in terms of leading them to space as Minshew places the ball in spots only his guys are able to come down with. Comfortable throwing his targets open down the field (both intermediate as well as the vertical game) leading them away from defenders to ensure completion. Really was remarkable how comfortable Minshew was from the get-go (arrived in Pullman during May 2018) being the triggerman for Mike Leach’s air raid system. Minshew came to WSU after strongly considering transferring to Alabama as a 5th year Senior. Before coming to WSU, he spent time at ECU, where he played quite a bit as well as East Mississippi CC & Troy.
His marriage with Leach in 2018 could not have gone any better for both parties as the Cougars enjoyed a meteoric rise up the Poll rankings culminating with an Alamo Bowl victory the year after the program lost four year starter Luke Falk to graduation. His story serves as a rare case study for the sport of a talented yet overlooked quarterback who was passed over as a player, elected to roll the dice transferring in his final year and hit the proverbial jackpot while doing so, something rarely if ever seen.
Minshew does a nice job of manipulating undercoverage with his shoulders & eyes (when situation calls for it) as he is adept at looking off hard one way & re-setting the other way throwing a variety of shallow or intermediate crossing routes to his targets in stride. Possesses terrific spatial awareness in terms of knowing where defenders are located and what their responsibilities consist of. Uses his manipulation tactics to freeze/hold defenders inorder to open up lanes orwindows to throw into.
Very smooth and fluidmover dropping back to pass. Does this very naturally & with great rhythm. Exhibits quick feet. Adept at leveling the football over and around undercoverage defenders while working the intermediate levels. Minshew is also very good at spinning the ball with arc on deeper throws outside the numbers (corner, fade). Plays the position with a high football IQ.
Arm strength limitations that may very well limit his ceiling in the NFL. Arm is not as strong as a Baker Mayfield’s was coming out. Solid feel for passing .windows within short & intermediate areas of the field. Minshew intuitively understands timing across a number of different route combinations and it shows up on film as he demonstrates the consistent ability to throw receivers open, anticipating throws and does so with great pace. He does not deal well with pressure either
early or late in the down as his composure in these situations is affected negatively amidst interior chaos. Has a tendency to force throws while under duress, often off his back foot and his lack of arm strength is magnified. Mechanics break down under pressure which leads to balls that flutter out of his hand.
Projection
Gardner Minshew has many of the attributes a successful NFL quarterback needs. He is one of the more refined passers in the class but one who will have to do all the little things well in order to reach his potential at the next level. His NFL ceiling will be determined by the situation he goes to and his ability to take advantage of every single opportunity granted to him. We believe he has a bright future and will be selected at some point during rounds 4-5. He has a legitimate chance at sticking in the league for quite some time most likely as a high levelbackup with the potential to start at some point down the line. System fit is going to be crucial for Minshew because if he goes to a system that does not feature or ask him to do what he does best he could end up out of the league within 2-4 years. If he lucks out by going to a great system and a staff who truly believes in him he could end starting in the league someday.
Tom Brady (Slight dip in physical skills in 2018 but he still came up huge in biggest moments)
Pat Mahomes (Nothing more to say- watc to see if he can keep up the pace in 2019)
AndrewLuck (Had a stellar 2018 under Frank Reich)
Russell Wilson (Will he get more help?)
Philip Rivers (Last chance for SB was in 2018, still is an elite player)
Matt Ryan (One tough SOB, re-uniting with Dirk Koetter should help)
Aaron Rodgers (He still is an elite thrower, but he still needs to prove he can be highly functional in new system during year of change)
Drew Brees (Arm is dying to almost gone but his smarts/anticipation/touch still there- NFC title game saw him get exposed in a few critical moments)
Ben Roethlisberger (Still can do what he has done but his decision making may be getting more odd under pressure)
Matthew Stafford (Looking for a re-bound year after battling through injuries in 2018, new OC Darrell Bevell should help him quite a bit honestly this year)
Carson Wentz (If Wentz was not so injury riddled he would be ranked higher but he needs to prove he can stay healthy and be consistent)
Jared Goff (2018 was not a fluke but the SB was brought him back to earth, still things to work on ie Decision Making under pressure)
Deshaun Watson ( Tantalizing player who one play turns your head and the next misses a read or lacks fundamentals)
Baker Mayfield (Great rookie campaign but needs to show up again in 2019)
Cam Newton (Still has elite talent but this will be an interesting guy to follow in 2019 coming of shoulder injury)
Dak Prescott (Stellar 2nd half of 2019 where he put the team on his back. Perhaps best in-game leader at the position in league)
Mitch Trubisky (This is not a mistake. He has areas to improve upon but he showed elite skills you cannot teach in 2018)
Nick Foles (He was his 2017 self until the playoffs last year. Foles panicked under the Superdome pressure during three 4th quarter Eagle drives that resulted in a missed opportunity)
Kirk Cousins (Pressure is on let’s see if he buckles under it yet again or if he manages it well)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (When he is on, he is a top 5 thrower in the league, problem is when he is off he plays like a backu)
Andy Dalton (Could be higher on list and might take off in a new WCO system)
Josh Allen (Off the charts skill set, developing quite nicely in upstate NY)
Jameis Winston (Arians should allow him to take off, may deserve to be higher on this list honestly)
Marcus Mariota (Showed flashes of elite passing ability in 2018)
Sam Darnold (Young kid with HUGE potential)
Lamar Jackson (Electric Dude)
Jimmy Garoppolo (Nothing to say.. we all know)
Derek Carr (Make or break year)
Colt McCoy/Case Keenum (Who knows maybe they shine Gruden’s system but doubt it.
Kyler Murray (Could take league by storm, only this low because we have not seen him play yet
Joe Flacco (Looks slow & lethargic at training camp, Lock will be playing by Week 8)
During his college career, Patrick Mahomes passed for over 11,000 yards, 93 touchdowns and 29 interceptions while making 29 career starts. Mahomes completed nearly 64% of his passes during his time in Lubbock. He also rushed for 845 yards and 22 touchdowns. Mahomes plays the position with a rare blend of athletic instinct, pure passing ability and arm strength. Mahomes was a three sport star at the high school level as he was a top prospect for the MLB draft and averaged 20 points per game on the basketball court. Ultimately it was football that Mahomes chose to pursue and he has put himself on the track to become a franchise quarterback at the next level and we believe he will end up being the best quarterback from this class when we look back ten years from now.
Agility and instincts within the pocket are off the charts as Mahomes has a second nature feel for moving from within and manipulating the pocket in order to create space for himself. Mahomes is one of the most natural movement throwers in the class as he is very comfortable in this regard something which stems from his baseball background. He is very “light” on his feet and shows the ability to re-set and get his lower half in position to deliver the ball at the snap of a finger. Even though his throwing mechanics need refinement Mahomes shows an innate
understanding of timing and routinely throws with anticipation on multiple types of throws. Mahomes will throw his wide receivers open and does so by anticipating windows in the middle of the field or by way of ball placement on deep routes outside the numbers.
What separates his arm from Chad Kelly’s is Mahomes ability to make wow type off platform throws at levels not seen since Brett Favre. Mahomes has rare arm talent. Has an intuitive feel on how to throw around as well as level the ball over defenders. Throwing with touch is a tool Mahomes relies on a regular basis and is adept at “leading” his receivers versus man coverage. Very Alert in the pocket and will take off and run as a last resort. Quick release that Mahomes uses to his advantage in the short passing game. Mahomes does have a sandlot, freelance feel to his game at times but beneath it all is an understanding of how to play within structure and operate as the triggerman of a pass centric offense. There will be those who dismiss Mahomes as a sand lot player who lacks fundamentals but we feel he is a high end talent with potential to be a franchise quarterback for years to come.
Projection
Mahomes will be the first quarterback taken in the 2017 draft as he has seen his stock soar throughout the pre-draft process. Mahomes will most likely sit during year 1 but has the tools to become a franchise level quarterback who can lead his teams to championships if everything falls into place for him.
Trait Grades (Mahomes)
Arm Talent (A)
Arm Strength (A)
Ball Placement/Accuracy (B+) Delivery/Mechanics (B)
As a three year starter for the Cardinals, Lamar Jackson threw for 9,043 yards 69 touchdowns & 27 interceptions. Jackson also rushed for an astounding 50 touchdowns while amassing over 4,000 yards on the ground. Jackson was tasked with being the triggerman for a pro-style spread attack that featured both his arm & legs. Jackson exited his college career as one of the most dynamic quarterbacks to ever play at the NCAA level.
Trait Grades(Jackson)
Arm Talent (A-) Arm Strength (A) Ball Placement/Accuracy (B) Delivery/Mechanics (A-)
(A) Anticipation (B+) Football IQ (A-) Touch (B-) Throw on Run (A)
Strengths
Arm Strength, Electric Playmaker, Throwing On The Move With Ease, Familiarity With Pro Style Passing Concepts, Compact Delivery, Natural Passing Instincts, Sheer Speed As A Runner, Toughness, Pocket Instincts, Anticipation
Weaknesses
Inconsistent Touch & Ball Placement On Deep Ball, Throws From a Narrow Base, Often Throws With All Arm, Overall Accuracy Concerns
Tape Analysis (Jackson)
Lamar Jackson played in a pro style offense under Bobby Petrino that allowed for continued growth & development in relation to NFL passing concepts. Mechanically, Jackson boasts a compact, snap delivery of the football allowing him to get passes off regardless of pressure or lack of space around him. As a passer, Jackson is a short strider which also helps him get the ball off quickly even when his foot platform to throw is sub-optimal. Jackson’s feet are quick & fluid from a drop back game standpoint which in turn allows him to deliver passes before defenders are able to react. Jackson maintains a high ball carriage position & is very quick/sudden mechanically from a release standpoint. Strong arm & quick decision make & displays outstanding arm strength both from within the pocket & on the move. When Jackson aborts the pocket he does so in a highly refined manner. Often times he would survey down field deep into the play & would only evade the pocket when his instincts called for it, simply put Jackson has elite pocket feel & awareness. There are many
instances on tape where it is apparent Jackson is a passer first & has true passing instincts. Jackson intuitively understands when, where & how to deliver the ball. Shows the ability to make wow type arm strength on the move. Multiple instances of Jackson firing the ball 35-40 yards on a line as he is running out of real estate near the sideline. Jackson is power thrower who is able to generate tremendous velocity on the move without a long windup.
Jackson does have inconsistent lower body mechanics at times & can be a bit stiff as a thrower. Needs to be coached to use more of his body & not just his arm & this is illustrated on throws such as sideline fades where Jackson will be become too erect & lacks the requisite feel & touch to deliver strikes. These are minor issues or at least should be in terms of correcting them as he transitions. The more tape we watch on Lamar the more it becomes apparent that he is the prospect with the highest ceiling in the entire class & deserves to be in discussion with Sam Darnold in terms of QB 1 and 1A.
Projection
Jackson is one of the top three quarterbacks in this class & has clearly demonstrated refined abilities in terms of coverage recognition, pure passing instincts as well as operating a pro style attack & is a rare runner at the position. Do not be shocked if Jackson ends up starting as a rookie and takes the league by storm. Jackson has pro bowl potential if he is developed properly at the next level.
Subscribe to Premium Pass for the most in-depth QB analysis delivered to your inbox year round.
The two time college walk on defied the odds stacked against him after transferring away from a QB room at Texas Tech that included both Patrick Mahomes II & Davis Webb. (Mayfield started as a true freshman for the Red Raiders) Mayfield quickly asserted himself as a Sooner in 2015 as he took hold of the starting job from the outset & enjoyed massive success as the triggerman of a pass happy spread system in Norman. When all was said & done Mayfield threw for over 14,000 yards with 131 touchdowns & 30 interceptions – placing himself in elite company as he is currently ranked 7th in all time NCAA passing yards. Mayfield also rushed for over 1,000 yards and 21 touchdowns throughout his college career.
Trait Grades (Mayfield)
Arm Talent (B)
Arm Strength (B)
Ball Placement/Accuracy (B)
Toughness (A-)
Pocket Presence (B-)
Intangibles/Off-Field (B)
Anticipation (B)
Football IQ (A-)Touch (A-)
Delivery/Mechanics (B+)
Running Ability/Athleticism (B+) Throw on Run (A)
Strengths
Instincts, Throwing With Touch, Arm Strength Between Hashes, Deep Arm Strength, Pre-Snap Decision Making, Throwing on Run, Quick Release, Lower Body Strength, Quick Twitched Mover, Toughness, On Field Leadership, Fearless, Creative Playmaker
Weaknesses
Lacks Fluidity & Ease with Drops, Inconsistent Feet, Inconsistent Throwing Mechanics, Playing From Within Pocket, Played in Gimmick Based Shotgun Spread, Lacks Pinpoint Accuracy, Plays Position in Un-Disciplined Manner, Pocket Feel
Tape Analysis (Mayfield)
Baker Mayfield is both comfortable & confident at creating off second reaction movement plays and possesses quick eyes to find receivers down the field while on the move. Mayfield naturally throws with good touch to all field levels and has clearly demonstrated the refined ability to level the ball over underneath defenders with ease. Oklahoma utilized Mayfield’s excellent throwing ability on the move by incorporating a variety of deceptive play action based rollouts. Mayfield does operate with more comfort moving to throw as opposed to dissecting defenses from within the pocket – In fact, often times Mayfield will step up into pressure and or sacks while attempting to navigate the pocket. Possesses good understanding of marrying his internal clock to the conceptual design of a given play but often times he has a tendency to become jittery and frenetic from within the pocket when pressure arises & the end result is Mayfield NOT being highly disciplined from a footwork perspective which negatively affects ball placement & timing.
Mechanically as a thrower he will open his left hip too soon on fade routes that will cause his passes to lose steam. Has room to grow in terms of becoming a more
mechanically refined thrower of the football. Carries with him a creator’s instinct once the ball is snapped. One of the better intermediate area touch throwers in class. Shows the ability to play within the structure & design of the offense at times & his delivery/feet allow for him to get the ball out fast. One of the better if not the best movement thrower in class. Consistently displays elite touch on deep routes down the middle of field showing the ability to drop the ball into the bucket. Will not be able to consistently beat you with anticipation and timing from within pocket. Tendency to Move at first sign of pressure which will not translate at next level. Only an average athlete at the pro level for position.
Front shoulder will flail open often resulting in Mayfield spraying the ball off intended targets. Has a tendency to become an aim thrower on short crossing routes. One of better deep post throwers in class due to his above average arm strength in driving the ball down the field with arc. Struggled at times opening up his hips while throwing to left to ensure proper ball location on intermediate crossing routes. Extremely good instincts moving to throw and will set up defenders with deceptive behavior on the move, giving himself the ability to create space at elite levels. Shows the ability to adjust his arm slot to throw over and around defenders. Inability to throw targets open on a consistent basis. Will place ball on wrong shoulder of intended target which disallows optimal YAC opportunities. Excellent agility outside of pocket. Better anticipation passer on the move than when confined to the pocket. Not excellent at keeping his receivers safe with ball placement. Does not display pinpoint ball placement on consistent basis. `
Projection
Baker Mayfield will be selected at some point in the first round. There are many quarterback needy teams & Mayfield will need to go to a system that “bends” its ideology to fit his skillset. A hybrid west coast/college spread system would allow Mayfield the best chance at NFL success. We believe Mayfield can be a productive player in the league ONLY if he is in the optimal position to succeed. We feel as though
he is a project at this point in dire need of development. The potential to BUST is there with Mayfield.
For Year Round In-Depth Analysis on Both NFL & Draft Eligible Quarterbacks Subscribe toPremium Pass
For In-Depth Reports on the 2018 Rookie QB Class Purchase Our2018 Draft Guide
Included below is a large portion of our Josh Allen scouting report from our 2018 Draft Guide
(Photo Credit – Buffalo News)
Josh Allen 6’5” 237 Wyoming *JR
Overview
In 2014, Josh Allen was the starting quarterback at Reedley Community College. After throwing for 2,055 yards & 26 touchdowns against only 5 interceptions Allen drew minimal interest in recruiting circles & ultimately ended up at Wyoming, one of the few schools who ended up wanting him. After receiving a medical redshirt year in 2015, Allen took over as the Cowboys starter in 2016 and had a mostly stellar year statistically as he threw for 3,200 yards 28 touchdowns against 15 interceptions. Allen saw his numbers dip in 2017 as he went for 1,800 yards with 16 touchdowns to 6 interceptions. Allen was a career 56% completion passer & also compiled 767 yards on the ground to go along with 12 rushing touchdowns. Allen enjoyed an abrupt rise to stardom during his time in Laramie and is a relative rarity among high end QB prospects in that he played first at the Junior College level before finding success at NCAA level (Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers)
Trait Grades (Allen)
Arm Talent (A-) Toughness (B) Arm Strength (A) Pocket Presence (C)
Running Ability/Athleticism (A) Anticipation (B-) Football IQ (B) Touch (B-)
Throw on Run (A)
Strengths
Raw Arm Talent, Functional Athleticism, Smooth & Decisive Mover, Excellent Feet, Smooth & Mechanically Sound With His Drops, Elite Arm Strength, Ability To Throw On Run, Release, Size, Ability To Make Tight Window Throws, Quick Release.
Weaknesses
Anticipation, Accuracy, Throwing With Pace, Beating Defenses With His Mind Pre-Snap, Manipulating Ball Trajectory, Throwing With Trust Into Windows With Touch, Pocket Steadiness/Comfort, Throwing Receivers Open.
Tape Analysis (Allen)
When evaluating Josh Allen his physical traits jump off the tape as there are countless times where he looks like a Dan Marino clone throwing the football down the field. This has proven to be just an aberration at this point as Allen’s game has been marred with inconsistency. When he is on Allen has demonstrated the ability to place the football deep down the field with rare velocity & distance & doing so without setting his feet. Allen can also be crisp and on time operating as a precision passer within the short game but at this point is not consistent enough on a down by down basis. He will hesitate to throw with anticipation & pace within the intermediate game, particularly between the hashes which speaks to Allen’s inability at diagnosing coverages before the ball is snapped & he has not shown a great ability to take advantages of coverage weak spots. Will “freeze” in the pocket & instincts tell him to tuck & run too often. Allen is a very athletic mover who can easily create yards with his legs and get himself out of tough spots. Allen throws very well on the move especially moving to his right. Accuracy & anticipation issues. Shows the ability to reset & fire. Shows flashes of looking like the best quarterback prospect in decades in terms of his release, mechanics & raw arm talent. Possesses tremendous ability to thread the needle on difficult tight window throws. Allen has a rare ability to throw with both velocity & distance and no other play exemplified this more than an on the move throw against UNLV from 2016. Allen exited the pocket to his right after initial pressure and threw an all arm 57 yard frozen rope to his receiver near the goal line. It is safe to say that Allen has the strongest arm coming into the draft since Cam Newton in 2011. Allen shows off his arm on a variety of throws including skinny posts, deep out & fades where the ball actually gains steam at the back end. His arm strength & athleticism will put immense stress on NFL secondaries as they will be forced to defend the entire field late into the down.
Projection
Josh Allen has made strides in refining his game while doing pre draft prep work with Jordan Palmer, a noted QB developer. His pro day was exemplar & Allen has built solid momentum heading into the draft. We believe Allen will be one of the first two quarterbacks selected & will end up going to a team that will allow him to sit & learn behind a veteran. If Allen continues to improve upon the noted deficiencies within his game & turns in his “A” game throughout training camp there will be a strong internal desire to turn him loose earlier than expected in year 1. Allen clearly has rare skills throwing the football but it will be the finer minute elements of the position that will ultimately determine just how good he can be in the NFL.
For In-Depth Analysis on the 2018 QB Draft Class, Secure a Copy of Our2018 Draft Guide
For Year Round In-Depth Analysis on Both NFL & Draft Eligible Quarterbacks Subscribe toPremium Pass
12. Alex Smith – Smith finished 2017 with a 104.7 passer rating as he threw for a career best 4,042 yards across 15 regular season starts. Smith was one of the top five quarterbacks last year from a week to week production & efficiency standpoint. Smith enters his 14th year with a new team & after spending five seasons with Andy Reid. It would be foolish to expect a seamless transition to Jay Gruden’s pure west coast based system although Smith is well versed both conceptually & verbiage wise in the WCO system. Expect Smith to continue to be solid but there will be some growing pains along the way in 2018.
13. Case Keenum – Keenum much like Smith in 2017, was a top five league quarterback week to week. Keenum was a main reason for multiple wins (Tampa, Chicago, Washington, Detroit, Los Angeles, Cincinnati, Atlanta) & provided the team with the best quarterback play it has seen since Brett Favre in 2009. Transitioning to Denver (Bill Musgrave) and away from Pat Shurmur will be an adjustment but Keenum is doing everything he can to make the learning curve short and has experience doing so (2017). If Keenum can continue to play as he did in 2017 the Broncos will return to the post-season.
14. Jared Goff – Goff passed for over 3,800 yards 28 TD’s with only 7 INT in 2017 completing quite possibly the greatest single year improvement in performance we have ever seen in the history of the league at the QB position. Goff showed to be deft as a pure passer who understands the finer points of touch, anticipation & throwing on time. Expect more of the same in 2018 as he enters year 2 with Sean McVay.
15. Derek Carr – Carr boasted an 86.4 rating in 2017 as he was forced to muddy through a Todd Downing led offensive attack in Oakland. If 2015 & 2016 were gold for Carr, 2017 was bronze as he threw a career high 13 interceptions. Carr still has one of the better arms in the league & his quick release allows him to make throws that only a handful of starters in league can. If the Carr/Gruden marriage goes as planned we could see the Raiders run away with the AFC West.
16. Jimmy Garoppolo – We saw flashes of his potential during 2016 as he made a pair of starts for the Patriots. Garoppolo went 5-0 as a starter in 2017 and completed 67 % of his throws. The sample size is still small but it looks like the 49ers are in good hands with Jimmy G at the controls entering 2018 and beyond. Has one of the quickest releases if not the quickest in NFL & consistently throws receivers open.
17. Sam Bradford – In his lone start of 2017, Bradford went 32-43 for for 382 yards with 3 TD’s and 0 INT. One of the most instinctually accurate QB’s in league who if he can remain healthy will make the Cardinals competitive in the NFC West.
18. Deshaun Watson – An injury shorted 2017 is the only reason Watson is this low on list. Watson earned NFL Player Of The Month For October (2017) Watson proved to be as advertised as he brought electricity, playmaking ability & deep ball prowess to the fold throughout his first seven NFL starts.
19. Dak Prescott – Prescott struggled in 2017. Some of the reasons were out of his control (OL Play, Receiving Talent, Lack Of Run Game) but other reasons were due to his lack of consistent and smooth footwork and accuracy issues that accompanied this. He is in dire need of a great year 3 and will be poised to have a bounce back year.
20. Blake Bortles – Bortles passed for 3,600 yards 21TD & 13 INT in 2017. He played some of the best football of his career in 2017 & played well against both the Steelers & Patriots in AFC playoffs. Bortles got his confidence back in a large way last year and should continue to play well in 2018.
21. Eli Manning – Eli finished 2017 with 19 TD’s and 13 INT’s playing in a dysfunctional organization. Manning was excellent in 2016 so the prognosis under new coach Pat Shurmur has to be at least luke-warm as Manning enters his 15th year in the league. The tape however shows a quarterback who physically is on the decline. That’s not to say Shurmur won’t be able to squeeze one more solid year out of him with all of the offensive weapons at his disposal.
22. Tyrod Taylor – During his three years as the Bills starter, Taylor completed nearly 63% of his passes and rarely turned the ball over while producing big time throws down the field and playing the position with an electric style. Taylor has limitations as an anticipatory passer but he should do well in Cleveland relying on his experience in the league & ability to improvise.
For Year Round In-Depth Analysis on Both NFL & Draft Eligible Quarterbacks Subscribe toPremium Pass
A new NFL season is upon us & once again we rank all 32 league starters.
Photo Credit – (USA Today)
1. Tom Brady – Brady delivered another “Brady like” season in 2017 that culminated in him throwing for a Super Bowl record 505 yards with 3 touchdowns but having the Patriot defense give up 41 points to Philly. Brady threw for 32 TD’s 8 Ints and over 4,500 yards in the regular season. Even as he ages it is hard to knock him off from the top spot but with an influx of new receivers and turmoil in New England it would not be shocking to see a slight dip in production in 2018
2. Aaron Rodgers – An injury cut Rodgers season short in 2017 but the Packers have re-tooled their receiving core and added more weapons for Rodgers. Expect Rodgers to pick up where he left off as he put together a tremendous month of September for the Packers.
3. Matthew Stafford – Stafford went for 4,400 29 TD’s against 10 INT in 2017 and continues to perform at an All-Pro level for Detroit. Expect Detroit to be much improved defensively this season. If the dice finally roll the Lions way in 2018 they may end up being a dark horse Super Bowl contender.
4. Carson Wentz – Wentz put together an MVP caliber season during his 2nd year as he made tremendous strides in multiple areas. Keeping a close eye on how he performs coming off an ACL injury will be telling on if he can pick up where he left off in 2017.
5. Drew Brees – Brees played second fiddle at times due to the strong ground game the Saints employed last season but when it mattered most he delivered. Brees is surrounded by young talent across the board and put together one of the better playoff performances in recent memory against Minnesota. Keeping himself in top physical condition along with his intense mental preparation should allow for continued success in 2018.
6. Philip Rivers – 2017 was all about the “Rivers Revival” in Los Angeles as he carried the Chargers week in and week out as the team relied upon Rivers to keep them in games and win them in the fourth quarter. 2016 was a down for Philip but he put up some staggering numbers in 2017 (4,500 yards 28 TD 10 INT) Duplicating 2017 will be tough to do with Hunter Henry out for the year but if he can remain hot the Chargers will be in prime position to win the AFC West and secure a playoff berth. From there, anything is possible.
7. Ben Roethlisberger – Another aging signal caller who continued to shine in 2017. Big Ben had a few rough outings early but got hot late in the year and threw for 469 yards and 5 TD’s in the Divisional round game against Jacksonville. Adjusting to a new OC will be something to watch early on this year.
8. Matt Ryan – Ryan went through growing pains in 2017 as Steve Sarkisian was tasked with taking over for one of the better play callers in football. Ryan did not match his production from the Super Bowl run the year prior but he delivered in the playoffs and played well enough for the team to beat the Eagles. Expect Ryan to continue to play at an elite level in 2018.
9. Russell Wilson – Wilson threw for a career best 34 touchdowns against 11 INT while continuing to deploy his playmaking brand of football. The Hawks were not their usual selves from a defensive standpoint and unless they can bolster the pieces around Russell he may have to put the team on his back yet again in 2018 operating under a new offensive coordinator for the first time in his NFL career.
10. Cam Newton – Newton continued to tease us in 2017 and at times looked like his MVP self from 2015. His numbers were inconsistent as he turned the ball over 16 times through the air however. Newton delivered against New Orleans in the Wild Card Round and reminded us of the electric player we have come to expect of him. Norv Turner is the new coordinator in Charlotte and if he can harness Newton we could see the Panthers run away with the NFC South.
11. Kirk Cousins – Cousins threw for over 4,000 yards 27 TD’s to 13 INT’s in 2017 but the Redskins endured multiple injuries along the way to key weapons surrounding him. Jay Gruden’s system fit Cousins very well but the Redskins ultimately elected to let him walk as Cousins was a hot commodity on the free agent market. How well he Adjusts to new teammates and a relatively inexperienced play-caller in John DeFelippo will determine how successful he performs in 2018. The pressure & stakes are sky high and Cousins excitable personality must not get the best of him in his first year as a Viking in order to reach expectations in Minneapolis.
For Year Round In-Depth Analysis on Both NFL & Draft Eligible Quarterbacks Subscribe toPremium Pass
Mike Zimmer & Rick Spielman flat out looking the other way during the lead up to free agency has put the team in Kirk Cousins or bust mode heading into 2018. Kirk Cousins is a fine young quarterback who has established himself as an elite passer in this league that can’t be denied. Kirk has developed into one of the better touch throwers in the league and has sneaky athleticism to go with a super clean role model like image off the field. Kirk’s career record as a starter hovers around the 500 mark. Unlike Case Keenum, reacting to pressure with a sense of calm and coolness is something that is not in Kirk’s DNA as evidenced by tape over the last three years. Kirk is indeed Brady like in the pre-snap recognition phase but Kirk will trust his arm a bit too much too often which results in ill timed interceptions. The Vikings are getting a solid quarterback who had the benefit of playing in THE most QB friendly system in the league again THE MOST QB FRIENDLY SYSTEM IN THE LEAGUE. Jay Gruden played QB Professionally for years before getting into coaching & he crafted a system that would make his Quarterbacks life easy.
Why they Turned Away from Case?
From the outset, Vikings Management seemed to go out of their way to not give Keenum praise from the moment he took the reigns as Quarterback. Keenum had a key hand in eight of the teams wins in 2017 & he was forced to play under the gun every week due to the Staff’s reluctance to embrace him as their guy EVEN THOUGH he was playing as good as any Quarterback in the league. It was almost as if the team was forced to play their 2nd Insurance Policy and were Having the best season in years due to some “random” Quarterback they did not pick to lead their team. Spielman & Company proved that Egos still do exist in Pro Football Management Circles.
Neglecting Bradford?
When Bradford has been healthy he has been a top ten QB in league. Sam’s knee kept him out of action for a large part of 2017 but after surgery, rehab & rest his knee was ready to go as of January 2018 for the playoffs. With Bradford apparently having a clean bill of health entering free agency the Vikings still balked at signing him to a deal to be their starter in 2018 & beyond.
Scott Tolzien got the nod Sunday at the Coliseum as the Indianapolis Colts opened the 2017 campaign against the LA Rams. It was an uneven performance with more bad than good for Tolzien as he went 9-18 for 128 Yards with 2 INT on the day. He also had a should have been TD pass stripped away by the Officials. We break down his first pass interception in detail.
For an In-Depth report on Andrew Luck, Scott Tolzien and every other Rostered QB in league be sure to get yourself a copy of our 105 Page 2017 Pro QB Almanac
(All Visual Content courtesy of NFL Game Pass)
Tolzien is confronted with a 3rd and Long situation on Indy’s opening drive. His pre-snap indicator is most likely the SS playing bump and run press man on the middle receiver (His Intended Target)
As Tolzien hitches up in the pocket, he has made up his mind and is placing trust in his intial pre snap read. The outside WR is running open and has green grass in front of him
We are able to clearly see the open Colts wr running across the field.
Tolzien’s line of sight is most likely inhibited due to interior pressure however this is a situation where throwing blindly with confidence comes in handy. The under route is clearly wide open and would have gotten the Colts a first down.
The ball is in the air and the Ram’s DB is in prime position to intercept the pass. Tolzien getting a bit greedy in the pre snap phase and not taking what is there resulted in a pick six for Los Angeles.
Carson Palmer turned in an MVP Caliber Season for Arizona in 2015 while throwing for over 4,600 yards and 35 TD passes. Palmer was playing the best football of his career during year 3 in Bruce Arians’s system. Much like Drew Brees and Sean Payton, Palmer and Arians seem to be a match made in heaven for each other. Palmer has said Arians is the best coach in the league by far and is constantly educating his players on the finer points of the game.
Palmer took a step back in 2016 as he really struggled at times leading to an up and down year. The pieces around him were not as helpful as they were in 2015 and Palmer will be looking for a bounce back year in 2017 as this may be his final run as an NFL quarterback.
Analysis
Palmer is included in an elder group of signal callers (Brady, Brees, Rivers, Eli, Big Ben) who seem __ to read the full report on Palmer and every other rostered league QB purchase our 2017 Pro QB Almanac
Since entering the league in 2009, Sanchez has thrown for over 15,000 yards with 86 touchdowns and 86 interceptions for a 73.9 rating. Mark came into the league as a 1st round pick of the New York Jets as he decided to declare for the draft days after the best game of his life in the 2009 Rose Bowl. Sanchez has alway struggled with turning the ball over since his entrance into the league but he showed promise as a young quarterback even playing for a defensive minded head coach who treated the position like a commodity. After leaving the Jets in 2014, Sanchez had a chance to start 8 games during his first year in Philly. He put up the best numbers of his career and at times looked like he could become a starter again. Mark however laid eggs against Seattle and Dallas during the month of December that year which cost the team a playoff berth. Sanchez remained with Philly in 2015 and spent last year in Dallas.
Analysis
Mark has always been a technician due to how he was raised by former Elite 11 and Mission Viejo HC Bob Johnson. Since his days at USC his release has been consistently tight, his feet extremely fluid and crisp, and has showed the ability to change ball speeds intuitively (at least in the intermediate and deep game) After shoulder surgery in 2013 it has become apparent that Mark has lost some arm strength and his velocity is just not what it was from 2009-2013. What makes Mark valuable at this point of his career is the fact that he is a great teacher and mentor for a young quarterback as Mark has truly experienced about every emotion a professional quarterback can experience. Deep Playoff Run as a rookie, back to back wins against Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in 2010, Disaster in 2012 dealing with Tebow mania, stellar offseason in 2013 and ready to roll with Marty Morhinweg only to get hurt during the Presason etc. Even though he has not fulfilled the billing of the “Sanchize” Sanchez has proven a lot in terms of how much character and integrity he has as a human being during his nine year career. He has fought inner demons, kept getting up again and again and continued to work. It is hard to tell what his role may be this year with Chicago but the QB room is better for having him there.
Strengths
Release, Feet, Experience, People Skills, Temperament, Football IQ at times, Touch.
Weaknesses
Decision Making, Accuracy in short game, Erosion of Confidence, Pocket Navigation